[redbean]

Many from the outside watched in amazement at the astronomical income of remisiers during the 1993/4 bullrun. Many could not appreciate the high risk that remisiers have to face in their business. The higher the commission, the higher the risk. I have personally seen a few top remisiers lost everything, with a few ended behind bars. I will talk about them later when appropriate.

Let me recall a story of this veteran remisier. He was away for several months because of a heart bypass. That was not a cheap surgical operation.

A few weeks after his return from this major ops he keyed in a sell order for 20 lots of a local bank. Accidentally he entered the decimal point wrongly. Instead of selling at $8.00, he entered $.80. When the trade was matched, he was a little lucky that the system did not hit the price he entered but best, which was $2.00. For each lot the lost incurred is $2k and for 20 lots it was $120k. Just by pressing the enter button that morning, he made a mistake of $120k.

Of course he client would not bear the loss. And he had to absorb every cent of the loss. That is how easy a remisier can make mistakes and make huge losses. Poor bugger.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

Where is the stock market heading...

Oblivion! That is where our stock market is heading. And this is not due to the current financial meltdown across the world. There are just too many inherent weaknesses in the system that spells one way, doom.

We were building a financial centre, a really huge one to befit our ambition, but relying on the foreign funds to come in and prop it up. For our own market, including funds and investors, is just too small. The over reliance on foreign funds and fund managers means that they can push it sky high and let it drop like a coconut when they decide to pull out. And they are just doing that right now.

The next problem related to this wild ambition is the padding of the stock markets with as many stocks as they can grab hold of, and many were simply junk stocks. To make things worst, derivatives upon derivatives were created almost daily which means that the market is over diluted. Every dollar is spread too thin. As long as the foreign tap is open, and the funds keep flowing in, it looks sustainable.

The commission structure that favours funds and house trading is a killer to the small traders. When big boys trade without having to pay commission except for a small clearing fee, how could small investors survive when they steamroll their way over them?

Then there is the new game of short selling. Small investors normally trade one way. Investing for the long term and and normally long in the market. And the big boys just shorted them out, all the way. The more ruthless is the shorting, the greater the profit for the big boys.

Where would all this lead to? The death of small investors. Small investors are being driven to extinction. All their money gone in a game with a loaded dice.

Their money were also gone when IPOs after IPOs were listed and subsequently all melted away. The billions that were sucked out from the stock market are hundreds or thousands of times the fees that the SGX collected from the listing companies.

What we have is a stock market that is not only leaking, but with a hole as big as a big longkang. Unless the whole system is restructured, fast, it will only head one way, for sure. The big volume of daily trading is only an illusion. The quantity of stocks is also an illusion. Many of the penny stocks are waiting to fold up. Just shell companies in a way. And the big stocks are also not spared from a system that allows shorting the stocks down, with no regards to their value and business.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

The myth of a vibrant stock market
If we lower the commission rate there will be increase in trading volumes which will translate into more business and more commission. When there are more foreign funds operating and trading in our stock market, trading volume will increase, more vibrancy, oh I forgot, more oomph, and sure more business, and more commission. When there are more stocks, derivatives, structured products, there will be more business, more commissions, and dunno more what.
When our stock market is linked to more stock markets, the sky will fall down, money will fall into the laps of everyone as business across the world can be done here. We will be a one stop business and financial centre and all will be doing roaring business. All the stock brokers and broking houses and all the supporting staff will be looking towards a windfall, not a downfall.
And we are nearly there, and daily trading volume is in the billions. And commissions must also be in the millions at least. And stock prices must have shot through the roof with such vibrant trading activities. The phones must be ringing non stop and remisiers will have no time for lunch. Yes, extended trading hours, no lunch break, business will go up by at least 10%..
What is real? Many stocks are now penny stocks, quite a number are worth less than 1c and listed in the main board. And where is the commission? Where are the investors and traders? Who is doing all the trading? Machines, really? But never mind if the machine can generate more trading and more commissions. Good times are here.
We have done everything right according to the norms and practices and conditions of Wall Street. We even invested in the world’s fastest computer to facilitate greater trading volumes in micro seconds. The best fund managers are all here trading in our market. Everything is going to be right. Trust me. Now be patient and wait, just wait.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

Friday, May 11, 2012
Risky Systems, Dire Consequences...
Yesterday night a somber CEO had to announce publicly that his bank had lost U$2B dollars in set of complex synthetic derivatives trade,

This CEO is no ordinary CEO but the king of Wall Street, Jamie Dimon, one of the most astute bankers around. The bank went through the financial crisis unscathed but suffered heavy losses last week when a unit of the bank took on complex derivative positions that resulted in unexpected losses:

“This portfolio has proven to be riskier, more volatile and less effective as an economic hedge than the firm previously believed,” - Jamie Dimon, CEO JP Morgan.[Link[

If Jamie Dimon and his bank can't figure the risk they were taking, how will the rest of us ever fully appreciate the risks we are exposed to? ….

The above is written by Lucky Tan in his Diary of a Singaporean Mind blog. It tells a lot about the kind of snake oil being introduced into the financial markets around the world and how the world blindly bought what the Americans sold. Singapore is one of them. China must resist all it can from being duped by the Americans. It is just not worth whatever returns there is. It can ruin financial institutions and the whole stock market. Only duds who think they know best or are gullible enough to believe the American’s sales pitch will go in with eyes wide shut.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

JP Morgan Chase is the best
Obama has about US$1m deposit in JP Morgan Chase. And he is so confident of the bank to praise it as one of the best managed bank in the US. If JP Morgan Chase is one of the best and losing US$2b due to a flawed risk management formula that they have relied on, how many lesser well managed American banks are waiting to implode? Or is this a case of American is best, even when they can fouled up to such an extent?
How many high net worth private investors are licking their wounds for their blind faith in American financial wizardry? How many Sinkies are still staunch believers while privately cursing at the money they have lost from listening to American bank advisers?
Come to think of it, like Obama said, what is US$2b? There are many very well run funds losing tens of billions or hundreds of billions and still crowing how well their funds are being managed. Losing US$2b is chicken feat, a great achievement really, seriously, honestly. Just don’t check my books. The American banking and financial system is the best. They have exported this great formula of success to the world. The last port of call is China, before curtain’s up.
Blessed are the believers.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

Demise of the stockbroking industry is imminent
With the trading volume petering off other than non commission generating computer trades, brokering houses are finding it tough going to cover their overheads. Remisiers too are sleeping on their jobs literary with hardly a phone call daily. Many would have qualified as low wage earners going forward and should be entitled to workfare subsidies.
Someone would have to bear the operating costs of brokerages and pressure has been put on remisiers to push their clients to trade more or they would have to cough up the difference in operating cost. Some houses are dangling the carrot to induce sleeping clients to start trading.
All these are meant well measures but failing to understand the real cause of the dying market and are futile efforts, grasping at shadows. Not many investors have much money left to feed the big funds and their gambling computers. When entering the market is a certain loss, who would want to trade even if it is for free? Unless the real cause of the systemic flaws in the market are recognized and removed, the stock market will collapse in increasing speed.
Within a matter of months there could be an exodus of remisiers out of the industry. More would be applying for taxi driving licence as the last resort. Employees of brokerages are bracing up for the red letters as retrenchment is on the card when revenue fails to match operating cost.
How could a healthy and lucrative industry reach such a pathetic plight? Actually the writings were on the wall several years back when all the changes were introduced into the market. Anyone in the industry would know what is happening but no one would want to do anything, and the slide to the bottom and self destruct is only a matter of time.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

Bankers Fleeing Europe Crisis Head to Singapore

The Europeans have started to take them down, one by one. The crooks and robbers in high places, wearing designer suits and an air of superiority, in the financial industry of the west, will hit the dust as their ill doings are being exposed. More will see their light being snuffed out as the financial industry with its unregulated mischievious products and practices revealed themselves as purely toxic and worthless waste. After wrecking the world economy in the late 1990s, nothing seems to change as they continue to revive and indulge in their old ways, and aggrandizing themselves with more dirty money from their ‘sophisticated’ but daft high net worth clients.

As the curtain is coming down, many are scrambling to the ignorant and naïve Asian countries that would open their doors and arms to embrace these financial rogues and their scam practices thinking that they were the god sent angels to boost up their financial systems and profits. If only they think a little and ask if these were really so talented, if their practices were so supreme, they would not be running away from the western paradise. And the top crooks and robbers would not be taken down, the big banks and financial institutions would not be in ruins.

But never mind, the Asians are always willing suckers to the west. Below is a compressed post on the great talents and their exodus to Asia. Sinkieland will be waiting in glee for these great talents.

Posted By: Rajeshni Naidu-Ghelani | Assistant Producer, CNBC
29 Jun 2012

A 37-year-old Paris-based French investment banker, who’s worked in London and New York, has been looking for a job in one of Asia's financial hubs, Singapore, for the past six months.
A director at an asset management firm owned by one of France’s big banks, she asked to stay anonymous, but told CNBC that even her husband, a portfolio manager, was on the lookout for work in Singapore. She added that they would move to the city-state with their two children as soon as one of them lands a job….

The French investment banker is one among a growing number of bankers looking to leave Europe as deteriorating economic conditions together with tougher regulations have slowed business and led to job cuts…. “It’s very, very slow here [in Europe]. On top of that, there are a lot of regulations adding up on each other, so it makes things a bit difficult,” she said.

Several global recruitment firms have told CNBC they’ve seen a significant increase recently in the number of European bankers wanting to relocate to the Southeast Asian city-state….The slowness in European and U.S. markets is also leading to more Asian-born bankers returning home to work, according to Norton….Malaysian-born Wai Keng Kwok, 33, is one Asian-born banker looking to make a fresh start in Singapore. Kwok moved to the island-nation in February,
after working for Morgan Stanley in New York for five years, to take up the role of chief operating officer at a local hedge fund started by a friend.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

The lesson from Stanchart and Barclay
Two giant banks, with world reputations to maintain, were caught with their pants down for playing dirty. And they were not the only two. Stanchart was reputed to have accepted Iran’s money to the tune of $310b when there was a sanction against it. Barclay and many big banks were rigging the Libor that undermined the integrity of the whole banking industry.
Yes, they cheated for the sake of profitability, like drug smugglers cheating with their lives. The latter faced the death sentence if caught, but they kept coming. Nothing is going to deter them from risking their lives to make money. And nothing is going to keep men in high position from their fraudulent and greedy ways to make money.
There is a saying that nobody will go into business to make losses. People will risk their necks and lives just to make money. The stock exchange is claiming how much it has cut trading cost to boost business and equity trading. Cutting cost seems to be their preoccupation and raison d’tre for a blooming stock market. There were some early gains for the exchange, but for how long? Does the cut in trading cost led to a more vibrant market or is it a corollary to the early demise of the stock market? At the rate it is going, the cut in trading cost is immaterial. The vibrancy and participation in the stock market is zilch or nearly there. The volumes reported were mostly clocked by computers. The traders and retail investors have gone into hibernation or dead.
How would cutting of trading cost help in reviving the stock market? Why was it that the market was so vibrant and the industry doing so well when trading cost was so much higher? Is there a correlation? The economists were the champion of liquidity, pumping more money into the economy to keep it growing. Why remove the liquidity in an industry that needs the commission to lubricate and pay for the jobs it supported by cutting cost, cutting the fuel it needs?

From what is happening, the lower trading cost is putting an end to the industry and it is only a matter of time before the sun set on this once lucrative and active industry. The trading cost is not a real issue in a healthy market. The trading cost is only material to those who need to capitalize on small margins and marginal cost to make money at the expense of small retail traders.
Is low trading cost a gimmick or a deadly concoction that will send the stock market to the graveyard? Many traders and retail investors are already there, dead and buried. Obviously the low trading cost did not do them any good. In fact they could be the direct victims of low trading cost.
What do you think? Still sleeping like Rip Van Winkle?
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

An industry dying
The rot is showing and starting to hurt. The first to be axed will be the remisiers. Following closely will be the backroom staff, then the dealers and the analysts. Eventually the brokerage will simply shrink to a skeleton crew.
How could that be? With investments in the hundreds of millions for out of this world high speed computers, big funds with their high speed sophisticated machines, and product managers with their sophisticated derivatives and wonderful paper products, and with sales volume chalking up double digit gains, why is the industry drying up, and dying?
There were all kinds of gimmicks to increase sales but mostly elementary. Most of the time it is just barking up the wrong tree. What is the real problem in the stock market? Why are the gimmicks of no lunch break, continuous trading, minimal commission, minute bid sizes, cutting more commission to gain market share, sophisticated high speed computers, more derivatives, all proved unworkable? And don’t forget the setting up of many foreign funds to gamble in the stock market, with their expertise and grand machines, it is simply not working.
Does anyone know? Does anyone want to know? Does anyone bothers to know why the stock market is turning turtle? It is time to set up feedback units and ask the people to come up with the answers. Yes, more feedback is the solution.
What is at stake, 10,000 jobs? That is inconsequential. It is the whole finance and banking industry, the financial centre, the companies that needed to raise funds in the stock market that are at stake.
When the financial crisis hit the US, they scrambled for more liquidity, more Quantitative Easing, to provide money to support the industry. What was being done here? Squeeze the liquidity, cut the commission to the barest. Has anyone forgotten that the industry needs the commission to pay for the overheads, to pay for the salaries of all the staff, the fund managers etc? The industry cannot survive without the oil to lubricate the system.
Does anyone know that when commission was 1% we had the best bull run in history? What more tricks are up in the sleeves to save the dying market that no one wants to talk about? How did the industry ended up in this pathetic state? Self inflicted, ignorance or tidak apa, leave it to the experts? Bring in the gods and all will be fine.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

The owner of this bull is having a party. His manager told him the bull is in the pink of health. Some suggested blowing hot air into its arse and it will spring to life.

What do you think?
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

Is a massive market crash imminent?
‘In the financial world, the month of October is synonymous with stock market crashes. So will a massive stock market crash happen this year? You never know. The truth is that our financial system is even more vulnerable than it was back in 2008, and financial experts such as Doug Short, Peter Schiff, Robert Wiedemer and Harry Dent are all warning that the next crash is rapidly approaching. We are living in the greatest debt bubble in the history of the world and Wall Street has been transformed into a giant casino that is based on a massive web of debt, risk and leverage. When that web breaks we are going to see a stock market crash that is going to make 2008 look like a Sunday picnic. Yes, the Federal Reserve has tried to prevent any problems from erupting in the financial markets by initiating another round of quantitative easing, but 40 billion dollars a month will not be nearly enough to stop the massive collapse that is coming. This will be explained in detail toward the end of the article. Hopefully we will get through October (and the rest of this year) without seeing a stock market collapse, but without a doubt one is coming at some point. Those on the wrong end of the coming crash are going to be absolutely wiped out.’

The above is posted in yolohub.com. Many financial experts are telling of the great danger of the stock market and financial system heading towards a big crash. And all because all the regulators and govt could not do anything to restrain the banks and funds from gambling and turning the whole financial system into a big casino.
Everyone with some knowledge knows how bad the situation is. What should they do about it? Some say, since nothing can be done, just join the fun and wait for the crash. Why is it that no govt is willing to say this is not the way to go, and decides to stay out. Keep clear from the danger and things they don’t understand.
Is there really no option, that govts can only watch and wait for the big collapse and nothing can be done? The least a govt can do is to stop getting dragged into the trap. Don’t participate. The worst thing is to go along, put in the chips as well and engaged the rogue gamblers to design the same system to be part of the dangerous system.
Then say, no choice, must follow the crowd or the rogue gamblers and let them do what they want. Such defeatist attitude is unimaginable. Holy cow, what is happening?
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

The stupidity of scrip lenders

The lending of shares to short sellers in the stock market was originally a scheme to facilitate error trading by investors. Short selling was also an offence in many stock markets or at least discouraged for obvious reasons. The encouragement by stock exchanges to facilitate scrip lending to sellers who short the market to make a quick profit for the right or wrong reasons is turning into a game of stupidity for the owners of scrips. It also makes the exchanges look just as silly.

Scrip owners or long term investors are encouraged to deposit their scrips or make them available for short term loans in return for a small fee that is nothing more than the prevailing interest rate. To earn such a pittance, the investors risk the value of stocks they are invested in to be driven down to ridiculous level and to suffer heavy losses.

The latest case of Olam International is a glaring example of how stupid this scheme has become and how silly the long term investors were made to look. They were actually helping the short sellers to destroy the value of their investments by lending them scrips to short sell. How could stock exchanges encourage such a scam is unbelieveable.

In a period of 6 months, from mid May to mid November 2012, the number of Olam scrips on loan increased from about 6% to 12%. In the same period, the price of Olam was down from around $2.20 to $$1.70. This is a loss of 50c or more than 20% of the value in May. If 100 million scrips were on loan, it amounts to a loss of $50m. How much could the owners of these 100m scrips get for lending the shares to the short sellers, $500k?

Is this so difficult arithmetic to understand that the scheme is so nonsensical and daft to the long term investors? Scrip lending only makes sense when it is in small numbers and does not affect the price of the shares aversely. It is useful to facilitate the smooth functioning of a stock market. When it is being abused, when it is used to destroy the value of a stocks, why would investors want to participate in such a scam to incur losses? Why would stock exchanges think that this is a good thing to encourage and to make it so convenient to borrow scrips in big amounts to destroy the value of stocks like in the case of Olam?

You don’t need to be a genius to work out the sums and to cry foul. The only people who could benefit from this scheme are the short sellers and long term investors who are also shorting the market to buy them back later. Obviously there are some long term investors with big holdings that would participate in such a scam. In the Olam case, the owner, the biggest holder of the stocks, is crying foul as a huge sum of money has been wiped out from the value of the stock. Olam International, as the major owner, cannot participate in such a scam as it would be questioned and may even be found guilt for insider trading or share manipulation. Other than Muddy Waters, who are the other best scrip lenders that are making a killing in this sell down? Unlikely to be Olam.

This can happen to Olam and any other stocks, the minority shareholders and the owners would be the ultimate losers. The manipulators would be laughing to the banks cause the stock exchanges allow it through the scrip lending scheme and short selling.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

A coalition of forces or an independent attack
When Nick Leeson tried to corner the Nikkei with the war chest of his bank, he believed that his bank was big enough to bank roll him against the small investors. He was successful initially as the rest of the investors were acting alone and lack the fire power to contest him. But when the stakes got too high, the Japanese investors got worried of his position. A crash of Nikkei could bring about a series of events that were difficult to control. The zaibatsu and the big guys gathered together to deal a deadly blow to this young turk acting alone. In unison, they took position against Leeson and the rest is history.
An almost similar picture happened during the Asian financial crisis when the big funds from the west formed an informal coalition to sell down the Hongkong market. HK stock exchange and its financial sector could be ruined if not stopped. The taipans, the HK Govt and the Chinese Govt got together with a bigger war chest to defend the onslaught and the victors were obvious. The western big funds took a rubbing and went back to lick their wounds.
In the local market we are seeing a smaller scale onslaught of a single stock, Olam International. The modus operandi is different. There is a report on the accounting and business practices of Olam put up by Muddy Waters to justify the sell down. The shorting of the stock has been going on for weeks. Olam is resisting and defending its management and business decisions. These have become side issues. The main thrust is the shorting of the stock in the market. At this point in time Olam appears to be losing ground as there is no let up in the selling.
It was reported that 12% of Olam scripts were on loan, probably to parties that were shorting the stocks. Who is going to win this battle of wits or is it a matter of war chest? Muddy Waters on its own could do just so much damage. Could it still be shorting and keep exposing itself to bigger position, alone? Or is it working in coalition with other parties to short down the stock?
At the other side, is Olam buying and supporting its stock value? If Olam is defending its position just by clarifying its management decisions and not buying back its stocks, it is going to be a losing proposition. And working alone to defend a stock without knowing how many parties are in cahoot with Muddy Waters to press down the value of Olam is not going to work.
What are the big funds here doing? Are they shorting the stocks as well or just standing on the sideline waiting to see what happens? How would the crash of Olam, if the shorting continues, affect the general well being of the stock market and the financial system?
The other issues to note, is Olam deserving to be sold down? If there are fraudulent practices, the fate of Olam is as good as sealed. If it is just a management decision, a fair practice, would any party think it is good to prevent a viable company from being destroyed by short sellers?
No one in the market is any wiser except the insiders. Are the local funds and big wigs willing to join force to defend Olam, if they could think of a reason? Or would the big shareholders of Olam get together to defend their investment? Or would they join force with the short sellers and sell down the stock in the quiet hoping to buy back with big profits at lower prices?
Who are the players, the short sellers in this game? In any situation of such a nature, the wolf pack or hyenas would often strike in unison, as a coalition, and the victim would be defenceless on its own. This is the precarious nature of the stock market when funds can move quickly, in tandem to cause destruction of stocks, stock markets or the financial system of a country, particularly the small ones. It is rare to have a repeat of the defence against Nick Leeson or the onslaught of the HKSE by the taipans and the Chinese Govt. Is it fair game, market forces?
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

Olam did the right thing
Olam is perhaps the first locally listed company that stood up to defend its position in the face of an attack to run down the value of the stock. This has saved many investors from having the value of their investments wiped out over night. Olam’s price is holding steady at 1.55. It could be seeing $1.20 or a run with its value crashing if Olam did not stand up to fight. The act itself is an assurance and affirmation that the management is confident of what they are doing and no hanky panky operations is going on.
And also must thank Temasek for speaking up to in support of Olam. Otherwise, its investment in Olam could also be sold for a song and another big write off. The position of Temasek is very important to hold back local investors from shorting the counter to kill off Olam.
The battle is still not over yet. The selling is still going on. No one really knows who or how many funds are behind the sell down of Olam. It can’t be just computer trading that is putting the pressure on the stock. The final picture is still unclear and this could be a temporary hold fire stage. The collaborators could come out selling again when the coast is clear.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.

[redbean]

The deadly derivative game
Justice Pillay had made a major ruling against Deutsche Bank of the lost of $59m for recommending derivative trading to a client few days back. In 3 months, the client, Dr Chang Tse Wen, lost $59m! This must be a kind of a record for the speed and the sum to be lost by an individual client.
The client was recommended to put money in discounted share purchase programme commonly known as accumulator. Whatever names they called it, derivatives, in whatever combinations or clever arrangements, are nothing more than betting slips. They are not investments but high risk betting or gambling.
How could such gambling slips be approved and be sold so widely across the world is troubling. The amount of derivatives bought and sold is mind blogging and could be the very instrument that could collapse the world financial system. But many high net worth clients would have to go first, losing their millions and their pants.
Investors who do not know how the derivative games are played are best to stay clear from such instruments.
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what i posted is just my personal view. feel free to disagree.